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	<title>Long Trance</title>
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	<description>A group discussion about technology, politics, economics, and the people who love them.</description>
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		<title>Long Trance</title>
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		<item>
		<title>It&#8217;s a common justification to say that a&#8230;</title>
		<link>http://longtrance.wordpress.com/2012/01/24/its-a-common-justification-to-say-that-a/</link>
		<comments>http://longtrance.wordpress.com/2012/01/24/its-a-common-justification-to-say-that-a/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Jan 2012 16:21:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Hober Short</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://longtrance.wordpress.com/2012/01/24/its-a-common-justification-to-say-that-a/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It&#8217;s a common justification to say that a particular policy is worth it if it saves even one life, no matter the cost. Of course, absolute statements like that might be easy to agree with in the abstract, but here&#8217;s where the rubber meets the road: (copying entire article at the time of this writing [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=longtrance.wordpress.com&amp;blog=2533047&amp;post=3017&amp;subd=longtrance&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s a common justification to say that a particular policy is worth it if it saves even one life, no matter the cost. Of course, absolute statements like that might be easy to agree with in the abstract, but <a href="http://www.wral.com/news/local/story/10636186/">here&#8217;s where the rubber meets the road</a>: (copying entire article at the time of this writing because I&#8217;m sure it&#8217;ll be updated)</p>
<blockquote><p><b>Wake Tech lockdown lifted after report of armed intruder</b></p>
<p>RALEIGH, N.C. — Wake Technical Community College lifted its lockdown around 10:30 a.m. Tuesday, about 90 minutes after someone reported an armed man on campus. </p>
<p>Wake County sheriff&#8217;s officials said they got a call about a man with a gun on school property just before 9 a.m., but Sheriff Donnie Harrison said there was no gun on school property.</p>
<p>Classes will resume at 1 p.m, according to Wake Tech spokeswoman Laurie Clowers. No other information was released.</p></blockquote>
<p>This. This right here is the cost of the policy of creating colleges as gun-free zones. Zero tolerance paranoia that involves a law enforcement scramble and a campus paralyzed with fear. I wonder what the cause will turn out to be. Prank call? Last time, it was a <a href="http://www.wral.com/news/local/story/10387437/">man with an umbrella mistaken for a gun.</a></p>
<p>This reminds me of that joke about a concealed carry permit holder who gets stopped by a cop and tells him he&#8217;s got a gun on his hip, another in the console, a third in the glove box and a shotgun in the trunk. &#8220;Jesus, man, what are you afraid of?&#8221; the officer asks. </p>
<p>&#8220;Not a damn thing, sir.&#8221;</p><br />  <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gocomments/longtrance.wordpress.com/3017/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/comments/longtrance.wordpress.com/3017/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/godelicious/longtrance.wordpress.com/3017/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/delicious/longtrance.wordpress.com/3017/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gofacebook/longtrance.wordpress.com/3017/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/facebook/longtrance.wordpress.com/3017/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gotwitter/longtrance.wordpress.com/3017/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/twitter/longtrance.wordpress.com/3017/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gostumble/longtrance.wordpress.com/3017/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/stumble/longtrance.wordpress.com/3017/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/godigg/longtrance.wordpress.com/3017/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/digg/longtrance.wordpress.com/3017/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/goreddit/longtrance.wordpress.com/3017/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/reddit/longtrance.wordpress.com/3017/" /></a> <img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=longtrance.wordpress.com&amp;blog=2533047&amp;post=3017&amp;subd=longtrance&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></content:encoded>
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			<media:title type="html">Hober Short</media:title>
		</media:content>
	</item>
		<item>
		<title>The Clever Hans effect is a pernicious form&#8230;</title>
		<link>http://longtrance.wordpress.com/2012/01/06/the-clever-hans-effect-is-a-pernicious-form/</link>
		<comments>http://longtrance.wordpress.com/2012/01/06/the-clever-hans-effect-is-a-pernicious-form/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Jan 2012 18:42:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Hober Short</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://longtrance.wordpress.com/2012/01/06/the-clever-hans-effect-is-a-pernicious-form/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Clever Hans effect is a pernicious form of confirmation bias. The name comes from a horse, Clever Hans, who could be asked complex mental tasks and answer consistently and correctly by tapping his hoof. To spoil the ending, it was found that all he was doing was reading the questioner&#8217;s body language, which would [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=longtrance.wordpress.com&amp;blog=2533047&amp;post=3014&amp;subd=longtrance&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clever_Hans">Clever Hans effect</a> is a pernicious form of confirmation bias. The name comes from a horse, Clever Hans, who could be asked complex mental tasks and answer consistently and correctly by tapping his hoof. To spoil the ending, it was found that all he was doing was reading the questioner&#8217;s body language, which would change when he had given the right answer, and stop tapping his hoof.</p>
<p>Haha, funny story. But it&#8217;s a good thing we don&#8217;t really rely on horses for math calculations, right? Well, it turns out the <a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/babbage/2011/02/animal_behaviour">same thing can happen with drug-sniffing dogs</a>.</p><br />  <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gocomments/longtrance.wordpress.com/3014/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/comments/longtrance.wordpress.com/3014/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/godelicious/longtrance.wordpress.com/3014/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/delicious/longtrance.wordpress.com/3014/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gofacebook/longtrance.wordpress.com/3014/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/facebook/longtrance.wordpress.com/3014/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gotwitter/longtrance.wordpress.com/3014/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/twitter/longtrance.wordpress.com/3014/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gostumble/longtrance.wordpress.com/3014/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/stumble/longtrance.wordpress.com/3014/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/godigg/longtrance.wordpress.com/3014/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/digg/longtrance.wordpress.com/3014/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/goreddit/longtrance.wordpress.com/3014/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/reddit/longtrance.wordpress.com/3014/" /></a> <img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=longtrance.wordpress.com&amp;blog=2533047&amp;post=3014&amp;subd=longtrance&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></content:encoded>
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			<media:title type="html">Hober Short</media:title>
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		<item>
		<title>The drug war is worse than I thought&#8230;</title>
		<link>http://longtrance.wordpress.com/2012/01/04/the-drug-war-is-worse-than-i-thought/</link>
		<comments>http://longtrance.wordpress.com/2012/01/04/the-drug-war-is-worse-than-i-thought/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Jan 2012 05:39:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Hober Short</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://longtrance.wordpress.com/2012/01/04/the-drug-war-is-worse-than-i-thought/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The drug war is worse than I thought: The shortages [of Ritalin and Adderal in pharmacies] are a result of a troubled partnership between drug manufacturers and the Drug Enforcement Administration, with companies trying to maximize their profits and drug enforcement agents trying to minimize abuse by people, many of them college students, who use [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=longtrance.wordpress.com&amp;blog=2533047&amp;post=3013&amp;subd=longtrance&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/01/health/policy/fda-is-finding-attention-drugs-in-short-supply.html">The drug war is worse than I thought:</a></p>
<blockquote><p>The shortages [of Ritalin and Adderal in pharmacies] are a result of a troubled partnership between drug manufacturers and the Drug Enforcement Administration, with companies trying to maximize their profits and drug enforcement agents trying to minimize abuse by people, many of them college students, who use the medications to get high or to stay up all night.</p>
<p>. . .</p>
<p>While the Food and Drug Administration monitors the safety and supply of the drugs, which are sold both as generics and under brand names like Ritalin and Adderall, the Drug Enforcement Administration sets manufacturing quotas that are designed to control supplies and thwart abuse. Every year, <b>the D.E.A. accepts applications from manufacturers to make the drugs, analyzes how much was sold the previous year and then allots portions of the expected demand to various companies</b>.
</p></blockquote>
<p>(Emphasis mine.)</p>
<p>So if the use of no-knock raids (which criminals are <a href="http://www.ketv.com/r/30111523/detail.html">starting to take advantage of</a>) wasn&#8217;t enough, now we&#8217;ve gone to central planning to fight this drug war. Wow.</p>
<p>Still chuckling at calling the arrangement a &#8220;partnership.&#8221;</p><br />  <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gocomments/longtrance.wordpress.com/3013/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/comments/longtrance.wordpress.com/3013/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/godelicious/longtrance.wordpress.com/3013/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/delicious/longtrance.wordpress.com/3013/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gofacebook/longtrance.wordpress.com/3013/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/facebook/longtrance.wordpress.com/3013/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gotwitter/longtrance.wordpress.com/3013/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/twitter/longtrance.wordpress.com/3013/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gostumble/longtrance.wordpress.com/3013/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/stumble/longtrance.wordpress.com/3013/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/godigg/longtrance.wordpress.com/3013/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/digg/longtrance.wordpress.com/3013/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/goreddit/longtrance.wordpress.com/3013/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/reddit/longtrance.wordpress.com/3013/" /></a> <img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=longtrance.wordpress.com&amp;blog=2533047&amp;post=3013&amp;subd=longtrance&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></content:encoded>
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			<media:title type="html">Hober Short</media:title>
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		<item>
		<title>If the Iraq war is officially over why&#8230;</title>
		<link>http://longtrance.wordpress.com/2011/12/15/if-the-iraq-war-is-officially-over-why/</link>
		<comments>http://longtrance.wordpress.com/2011/12/15/if-the-iraq-war-is-officially-over-why/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 15 Dec 2011 19:46:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Hober Short</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://longtrance.wordpress.com/2011/12/15/if-the-iraq-war-is-officially-over-why/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[If the Iraq war is officially over, why did the Senate vote down a &#8220;resolution to revoke congressional authorization of the Iraq war?&#8221;<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=longtrance.wordpress.com&amp;blog=2533047&amp;post=3010&amp;subd=longtrance&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If the Iraq war is officially over, why did the Senate vote down a &#8220;<a href="http://spectator.org/blog/2011/11/30/senate-tackles-iraq-war-powers">resolution to revoke congressional authorization of the Iraq war</a>?&#8221;</p><br />  <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gocomments/longtrance.wordpress.com/3010/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/comments/longtrance.wordpress.com/3010/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/godelicious/longtrance.wordpress.com/3010/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/delicious/longtrance.wordpress.com/3010/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gofacebook/longtrance.wordpress.com/3010/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/facebook/longtrance.wordpress.com/3010/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gotwitter/longtrance.wordpress.com/3010/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/twitter/longtrance.wordpress.com/3010/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gostumble/longtrance.wordpress.com/3010/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/stumble/longtrance.wordpress.com/3010/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/godigg/longtrance.wordpress.com/3010/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/digg/longtrance.wordpress.com/3010/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/goreddit/longtrance.wordpress.com/3010/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/reddit/longtrance.wordpress.com/3010/" /></a> <img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=longtrance.wordpress.com&amp;blog=2533047&amp;post=3010&amp;subd=longtrance&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></content:encoded>
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			<media:title type="html">Hober Short</media:title>
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		<title>In this forum we&#8217;ve previously mocked the adoption of&#8230;</title>
		<link>http://longtrance.wordpress.com/2011/12/13/3005/</link>
		<comments>http://longtrance.wordpress.com/2011/12/13/3005/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Dec 2011 23:12:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Hober Short</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://longtrance.wordpress.com/?p=3005</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In this forum, we&#8217;ve previously mocked the adoption of &#8220;actionable&#8221; (definition: grounds for legal action) as a buzzword meaning &#8220;justification for action&#8221;. I&#8217;ve was also amused when someone on Twitter noted the corruption of &#8220;monetize&#8221; (definition: to create currency) into a buzzword meaning &#8220;to create a revenue stream&#8221;. The latest in this series in brought to you [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=longtrance.wordpress.com&amp;blog=2533047&amp;post=3005&amp;subd=longtrance&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In this forum, we&#8217;ve <a href="http://longtrance.wordpress.com/2009/07/27/tweetree-ad-web-analytics-expert-avin/">previously mocked</a> the adoption of &#8220;actionable&#8221; (definition: grounds for legal action) as a buzzword meaning &#8220;justification for action&#8221;. I&#8217;ve was also amused when someone on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/dozba/status/17959210327">noted</a> the corruption of &#8220;monetize&#8221; (definition: to create currency) into a buzzword meaning &#8220;to create a revenue stream&#8221;.</p>
<p>The latest in this series in brought to you by <em>A Game of Thrones</em>, which reminds us that &#8220;turnkey&#8221; was originally a derogatory term for a jailer, attempting to deride him for the fact that he simply turned the key. Compare that prison context of the word with the modern meaning of a &#8220;turnkey solution&#8221; which requires little to no setup or customization (but could be said to <em>lock you in </em>to the standard configuration).</p>
<p>Aren&#8217;t words fun?</p><br />  <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gocomments/longtrance.wordpress.com/3005/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/comments/longtrance.wordpress.com/3005/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/godelicious/longtrance.wordpress.com/3005/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/delicious/longtrance.wordpress.com/3005/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gofacebook/longtrance.wordpress.com/3005/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/facebook/longtrance.wordpress.com/3005/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gotwitter/longtrance.wordpress.com/3005/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/twitter/longtrance.wordpress.com/3005/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gostumble/longtrance.wordpress.com/3005/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/stumble/longtrance.wordpress.com/3005/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/godigg/longtrance.wordpress.com/3005/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/digg/longtrance.wordpress.com/3005/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/goreddit/longtrance.wordpress.com/3005/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/reddit/longtrance.wordpress.com/3005/" /></a> <img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=longtrance.wordpress.com&amp;blog=2533047&amp;post=3005&amp;subd=longtrance&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></content:encoded>
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			<media:title type="html">Hober Short</media:title>
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		<title>When you fly on an airplane you are&#8230;</title>
		<link>http://longtrance.wordpress.com/2011/11/29/when-you-fly-on-an-airplane-you-are/</link>
		<comments>http://longtrance.wordpress.com/2011/11/29/when-you-fly-on-an-airplane-you-are/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 29 Nov 2011 15:59:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Hober Short</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://longtrance.wordpress.com/2011/11/29/when-you-fly-on-an-airplane-you-are/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[When you fly on an airplane, you are directed to turn off electronics for takeoff and landing. Is there any chance whatsoever that an inadvertently-active cell phone (even in airplane mode) could cause any airplane malfunction? Yesterday, I would have said &#8220;almost certainly not&#8221;. Today, though, my answer is &#8220;absolutely not&#8221;, thanks to an excellent [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=longtrance.wordpress.com&amp;blog=2533047&amp;post=2997&amp;subd=longtrance&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>When you fly on an airplane, you are directed to turn off electronics for takeoff and landing. Is there any chance whatsoever that an inadvertently-active cell phone (even in airplane mode) could cause any airplane malfunction? Yesterday, I would have said &#8220;almost certainly not&#8221;. Today, though, my answer is &#8220;absolutely not&#8221;, thanks to an excellent point <a href="http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/11/27/disruptions-fliers-must-turn-off-devices-but-its-not-clear-why/">made by an NYT blogger</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>Surely if electronic gadgets could bring down an airplane, you can be sure that the Department of Homeland Security and the Transportation Security Administration, which has a <a title="Prohibited items on planes." href="http://www.tsa.gov/travelers/airtravel/prohibited/permitted-prohibited-items.shtm">consuming fear of 3.5 ounces</a> of hand lotion and gel shoe inserts, wouldn’t allow passengers to board a plane with an iPad or Kindle, for fear that they would be used by terrorists.</p></blockquote>
<p>Huh. Yeah, pretty much. So why is the policy still in place? &#8220;There was no evidence saying these devices can’t interfere with a plane, and there was no evidence saying that they can.&#8221; No one wants to take the bullet and say &#8220;we&#8217;ve been wrong for years&#8221;.</p>
<p>This point is particularly relevant given EconTalk&#8217;s recent <a href="http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2011/11/taubes_on_fat_s.html">podcast with Gary Taubes</a> where he talks about how government dietary guidelines are almost certainly wrong, but nobody is willing to step up and say &#8220;We&#8217;ve been killing people for decades with bad nutrition recommendations&#8221; and change them.</p><br />  <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gocomments/longtrance.wordpress.com/2997/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/comments/longtrance.wordpress.com/2997/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/godelicious/longtrance.wordpress.com/2997/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/delicious/longtrance.wordpress.com/2997/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gofacebook/longtrance.wordpress.com/2997/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/facebook/longtrance.wordpress.com/2997/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gotwitter/longtrance.wordpress.com/2997/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/twitter/longtrance.wordpress.com/2997/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gostumble/longtrance.wordpress.com/2997/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/stumble/longtrance.wordpress.com/2997/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/godigg/longtrance.wordpress.com/2997/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/digg/longtrance.wordpress.com/2997/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/goreddit/longtrance.wordpress.com/2997/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/reddit/longtrance.wordpress.com/2997/" /></a> <img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=longtrance.wordpress.com&amp;blog=2533047&amp;post=2997&amp;subd=longtrance&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></content:encoded>
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			<media:title type="html">Hober Short</media:title>
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		<title>The economic term  durable good denotes something&#8230;</title>
		<link>http://longtrance.wordpress.com/2011/11/07/the-economic-term-durable-good-denotes-something/</link>
		<comments>http://longtrance.wordpress.com/2011/11/07/the-economic-term-durable-good-denotes-something/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 07 Nov 2011 16:49:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Hober Short</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[status]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[The economic term &#8220;durable good&#8221; denotes something that will be useful for multiple (usually at least 3) years. The canonical examples are appliances, cars, and industrial equipment (tractors, factory machines). Because durable goods tend to be something expensive that is paid off over a period of years, consumers tend to spend a while researching the [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=longtrance.wordpress.com&amp;blog=2533047&amp;post=2988&amp;subd=longtrance&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The economic term &#8220;durable good&#8221; denotes something that will be useful for multiple (usually at least 3) years. The canonical examples are appliances, cars, and industrial equipment (tractors, factory machines). Because durable goods tend to be something expensive that is paid off over a period of years, consumers tend to spend a while researching the good and waiting for the right time to buy it.</p>
<p>So what happens when you offer a short-term, multi-thousand dollar incentive to purchase a new durable good, as the FedGov did with Cash for Clunkers? People <a href="http://www.rff.org/RFF/Documents/RFF-DP-10-39-REV.pdf">shift their buying forward</a> by buying sooner rather than later. So although a ton of cars were bought under the program, an estimated 45% of those cars would have been bought anyway (which works out to a billion dollars of wasted incentives). </p>
<p>Check out page 28 of that PDF for the graph of the new car sales, and note the jump during Cash for Clunkers and the immediately following fall. And then note that the graph is on a <i>log scale</i>.</p><br />  <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gocomments/longtrance.wordpress.com/2988/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/comments/longtrance.wordpress.com/2988/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/godelicious/longtrance.wordpress.com/2988/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/delicious/longtrance.wordpress.com/2988/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gofacebook/longtrance.wordpress.com/2988/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/facebook/longtrance.wordpress.com/2988/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gotwitter/longtrance.wordpress.com/2988/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/twitter/longtrance.wordpress.com/2988/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gostumble/longtrance.wordpress.com/2988/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/stumble/longtrance.wordpress.com/2988/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/godigg/longtrance.wordpress.com/2988/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/digg/longtrance.wordpress.com/2988/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/goreddit/longtrance.wordpress.com/2988/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/reddit/longtrance.wordpress.com/2988/" /></a> <img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=longtrance.wordpress.com&amp;blog=2533047&amp;post=2988&amp;subd=longtrance&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>The importance of economic predictions This year’s plummeting&#8230;</title>
		<link>http://longtrance.wordpress.com/2011/11/03/the-importance-of-economic-predictions-this-year%e2%80%99s-plummeting/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 03 Nov 2011 14:37:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Hober Short</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[The importance of economic predictions: This year’s plummeting peanut production has caused several peanut butter makers to raises prices. Peter Pan and JIF raised their wholesale peanut butter prices 20 percent Monday, while Smuckers introduced 30 percent price hikes Tuesday. . . . “It&#8217;s a matter of supply and demand,” Sutter said. “Cotton prices were [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=longtrance.wordpress.com&amp;blog=2533047&amp;post=2986&amp;subd=longtrance&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.wral.com/news/local/story/10328789/">The importance of economic predictions</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>This year’s plummeting peanut production has caused several peanut butter makers to raises prices. Peter Pan and JIF raised their wholesale peanut butter prices 20 percent Monday, while Smuckers introduced 30 percent price hikes Tuesday.</p>
<p>. . . </p>
<p>“It&#8217;s a matter of supply and demand,” Sutter said. “Cotton prices were high this spring, and that prompted farmers to plant cotton instead of peanuts this year.” That, plus a bad drought in Texas, caused peanut supplies to be down 13 percent from last year.</p></blockquote>
<p>Hopefully our government will let the price system work to equilibrate the problem. And, speaking of prices&#8230;</p>
<blockquote><p>“Just because (consumers) are paying what they think is a high price for peanut butter, I promise you the farmer isn&#8217;t getting any of that increase,” [farmer Jerry] Hamill said.</p></blockquote>
<p>So you have a scarce good but aren&#8217;t getting paid any more for it? Sure smells like price manipulation&#8230;</p><br />  <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gocomments/longtrance.wordpress.com/2986/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/comments/longtrance.wordpress.com/2986/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/godelicious/longtrance.wordpress.com/2986/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/delicious/longtrance.wordpress.com/2986/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gofacebook/longtrance.wordpress.com/2986/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/facebook/longtrance.wordpress.com/2986/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gotwitter/longtrance.wordpress.com/2986/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/twitter/longtrance.wordpress.com/2986/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gostumble/longtrance.wordpress.com/2986/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/stumble/longtrance.wordpress.com/2986/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/godigg/longtrance.wordpress.com/2986/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/digg/longtrance.wordpress.com/2986/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/goreddit/longtrance.wordpress.com/2986/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/reddit/longtrance.wordpress.com/2986/" /></a> <img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=longtrance.wordpress.com&amp;blog=2533047&amp;post=2986&amp;subd=longtrance&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></content:encoded>
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			<media:title type="html">Hober Short</media:title>
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		<title>This just in from California the Crazy Gun&#8230;</title>
		<link>http://longtrance.wordpress.com/2011/11/01/2978/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Nov 2011 17:41:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Hober Short</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://longtrance.wordpress.com/?p=2978</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This just in from California, the Crazy Gun Law State which also just recently banned open carry of handguns: A man trying to stop a robbery in Canyon Country was shot to death Monday afternoon. The 30-year-old Good Samaritan [sic] was trying to help a robbery victim who was being beaten up at a parking [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=longtrance.wordpress.com&amp;blog=2533047&amp;post=2978&amp;subd=longtrance&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://abclocal.go.com/kabc/story?section=news/local/los_angeles&amp;id=8413723&amp;cmp=twi-kabc-article-8413723">This just in</a> from California, the Crazy Gun Law State which also just recently banned <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20118261-503544.html">open carry of handguns</a>: </p>
<blockquote><p>A man trying to stop a robbery in Canyon Country was shot to death Monday afternoon.</p>
<p>The 30-year-old Good Samaritan [sic] was trying to help a robbery victim who was being beaten up at a parking lot of a strip mall on the 18000 block of Soledad Canyon Road, according to authorities.</p></blockquote>
<p>Short version: a guy agrees to meet someone outside a post office to sell them a Nintendo DS. He gets there, and the buyers turn out to be four thugs who start robbing and beating him. A nearby <a href="http://www.mwkworks.com/onsheepwolvesandsheepdogs.html">sheepdog</a> sees this happening, grabs his baseball bat, runs over to break it up, and gets rewarded with being shot in the chest. He died.</p>
<p>See how much safer the world is without civilians legally carrying guns?</p><br />  <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gocomments/longtrance.wordpress.com/2978/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/comments/longtrance.wordpress.com/2978/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/godelicious/longtrance.wordpress.com/2978/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/delicious/longtrance.wordpress.com/2978/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gofacebook/longtrance.wordpress.com/2978/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/facebook/longtrance.wordpress.com/2978/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gotwitter/longtrance.wordpress.com/2978/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/twitter/longtrance.wordpress.com/2978/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gostumble/longtrance.wordpress.com/2978/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/stumble/longtrance.wordpress.com/2978/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/godigg/longtrance.wordpress.com/2978/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/digg/longtrance.wordpress.com/2978/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/goreddit/longtrance.wordpress.com/2978/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/reddit/longtrance.wordpress.com/2978/" /></a> <img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=longtrance.wordpress.com&amp;blog=2533047&amp;post=2978&amp;subd=longtrance&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></content:encoded>
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			<media:title type="html">Hober Short</media:title>
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		<title>The fine bloggers over at Popehat recently posted&#8230;</title>
		<link>http://longtrance.wordpress.com/2011/10/11/the-fine-bloggers-over-at-popehat-recently-posted/</link>
		<comments>http://longtrance.wordpress.com/2011/10/11/the-fine-bloggers-over-at-popehat-recently-posted/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 11 Oct 2011 21:40:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Hober Short</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[The fine bloggers over at Popehat recently posted a very interesting argument about laws changing in response to technological change. In particular, after a long introduction about slavery and the cotton gin, they talk about how gun control is becoming pointless thanks to the internet and 3D printers: There’s one step missing: proof that the [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=longtrance.wordpress.com&amp;blog=2533047&amp;post=2973&amp;subd=longtrance&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The fine bloggers over at Popehat recently posted a very interesting argument about laws changing in response to technological change. In particular, after a long introduction about slavery and the cotton gin, they talk about how <a href="http://www.popehat.com/2011/10/06/the-third-wave-cnc-stereolithography-and-the-end-of-gun-control/">gun control is becoming pointless thanks to the internet and 3D printers</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>There’s one step missing: proof that the average man on the street can actually use cheap CNC tools to build firearms.</p>
<p>Even with out a first amendment, samizdat would ensure that the data would be out there…but given that the legislature and the executive do have to respect our right to speak (even if it has to be reminded somewhat rudely by the courts and the people from time to time), it’s relatively easy to <a href="http://cncguns.com/">find folks to talk to about home CNC production of firearms</a>.</p>
<p>And remember that thing about information wanting to be free?  In our glorious jetcar-free, but peer-to-peer-laden future, collecting and swapping is no longer just for baseball cards; it’s also for plastic printing your own <a href="http://www.thingiverse.com/thing:11636">AR-15 magazines</a> and <a href="http://www.thingiverse.com/thing:11669">lower receivers</a>.</p></blockquote>
<p>My only comment is to add that the lower receiver of an AR-15 is what is considered to be the &#8220;gun&#8221; part of the gun (and is therefore serial numbered and controlled) and is also what determines whether the AR-15 is semi-auto or full-auto. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Firearms_Act">Since 1986</a>, it has been illegal for a civilian to own any full-auto weapon not registered as such before 1986. As an anecdote, I recently saw someone trying to sell a pre-1986 M16 for $18,000, where that gun, semi-auto, brand new today (i.e. of higher quality) would run for $1,000. </p>
<p>I wouldn&#8217;t be at all surprised if there are samizdat plans for full-auto AR15 receivers floating around on the internet.</p><br />  <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gocomments/longtrance.wordpress.com/2973/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/comments/longtrance.wordpress.com/2973/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/godelicious/longtrance.wordpress.com/2973/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/delicious/longtrance.wordpress.com/2973/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gofacebook/longtrance.wordpress.com/2973/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/facebook/longtrance.wordpress.com/2973/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gotwitter/longtrance.wordpress.com/2973/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/twitter/longtrance.wordpress.com/2973/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gostumble/longtrance.wordpress.com/2973/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/stumble/longtrance.wordpress.com/2973/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/godigg/longtrance.wordpress.com/2973/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/digg/longtrance.wordpress.com/2973/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/goreddit/longtrance.wordpress.com/2973/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/reddit/longtrance.wordpress.com/2973/" /></a> <img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=longtrance.wordpress.com&amp;blog=2533047&amp;post=2973&amp;subd=longtrance&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></content:encoded>
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